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SA tour diary: number crunching
By Rich Abbott 2 months ago, No Comments; be the first!
At breakfast this morning I managed to sit next to the only person in my hotel – or the whole of Cape Town for that matter – not here for the cricket: an American, here on business.
He made a good job of pretending to be interested in this curious game, and expressed bewilderment at the invasion of the barmy army. His interest peaked when I told him that America had contested the first ever international fixture in the mid 1800s (which I believe is true), but evaporated the instant I told him they’d lost to Canada.
When I said I was here to write about the next five days, he looked at me as if I’d just demanded to buy his wife. “Jeez, sounds like you’ve found the only way to make it even more boring,” he said (hinting that he reads my blog entries). “Besides, what’s there to write about?”
After I spectacularly miscalculated the conversion of South African Rand into British Pounds, he concluded I “stick to the words, buddy – numbers clearly aren’t your thing.” And of course they’re not – except when cricket’s involved.
Identified as a blissfully hopeless mathematician early on in my school career, cricket brings out a love of numbers in me, that maths never has or will. To some extent, all cricket fans are number geeks. Why else do we recognise timeless figures such as 99.94, 19-90 and 558 (the number of fours Robin Smith hit in Tests. No? Just me?)
Each match throws up combinations of digits that would fail to hold my attention in any other context. Take the Durban Test: Swann claiming 54 Test victims in 2009, England taking exactly 1000 balls to bring up their 550, Graeme Swann’s match average of 18.22 and the combined first and second innings scores of three of South Africa’s top six – Prince, Amla and Duminy – being 30.
By Thursday we’ll have a new set: one which will hopefully include an emotional century for Jonathan Trott, Graeme Swann’s best Jim Laker impression and England’s first Test win in Cape Town for 53 years.
No Comments »Flower’s stat attack
By Rich Abbott last year, at the start of November, 6 Comments »
Rich Abbott is new here, and a young aspiring writer. Don’t flame him too readily yet
Andy Flower (quoted in yesterday’s Telegraph): “I think there is scope for looking at the statistics side of the game and using it more intelligently. If you look at some of the stats the Americans compile and study – and they have been professional for a lot longer than we have – that is something we have to exploit if we are going to be better than other countries.”
Interesting noises from England’s head coach, and ones which got me thinking about one of the best sports books I’ve ever read, Michael Lewis’s Moneyball. It’s about baseball, but don’t let that put you off – I thoroughly recommend it.
I knew next to nothing about the sport when I read it – couldn’t tell my Babe Ruth from my Barry Bonds and thought A-Rod was a tennis player – but it didn’t matter, because it’s a great story.
In true American fashion, the book boasts a movie-trailer tagline: ‘The art of winning an unfair game’. It’s unfair in that the team in question, the Oakland A’s, could not match the giants of the sport for money or resources, and therefore, results. That began to change when Billy Beane took charge.
He may sound like a member of the Bash Street Kids, but Beane turned out to be one of the most open-minded and influential general managers in the sport’s history.
He was prepared to go against perceived wisdom and the advice of almost all of those around him, and began to employ an objective method of statistical analysis called Sabermetrics. Though originally viewed with suspicion by the establishment, Beane’s success with this new use of numbers has now ensured it a worthy place in the stats-obsessed Baseball Operations departments of the top teams.
For all the databases and number crunching, essentially, Moneyball is a story about a coach who was prepared to think outside the crease, question elements of traditional analysis and remain a step or two ahead of his competitors. Admirable qualities, and – it seems – ones shared by the head coach of the England cricket team.
6 Comments »Brett Lee: 300 and counting
By Will 2 years ago, at the start of December, 7 Comments »
I have to admit that I never thought he’d get there. Steve Waugh labelled him, unfairly so, as a “once in a generation” bowler, right when he couldn’t control his ludicrous pace. Anyway – a stat attack for you, courtesy of Andrew Miller. Did you know Lee is the only bowler to have taken 300 Test wickets yet has never taken more than five in an innings?
Me neither. Geek-tastic.
7 Comments »Statistics can lie
By Alex Try 2 years ago, mid-October, 3 Comments »
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“There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics” alleged former British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli.
I’m not sure if Disraeli was a cricketer: perhaps this was said in response to a particularly bad season in which his batting average belied the way he was striking the ball in the nets? One thing is sure: statistics hold a powerful grip over the mind of the cricketer and the cricket fan. You don’t hear Manchester United fans discussing Cristiano Ronaldo or Wayne Rooney’s respective goals-to-shots ratio. Be it bowling averages or strike rates, we are obsessed, and this obsession often clouds our judgement of a player.
Ricky Ponting, Australia’s captain, began the current series under a cloud. Prior to the first Test he had scored a grand total of 172 runs in eight matches against India in India, at a dismal average of just 12.3. Much was made of this statistic in the pre-match posturing between the sides, and Ponting himself was obviously acutely aware of his past failings.
“Ponting’s poor record is an advantage for us,” Zaheer Khan told an Indian news channel. “This could be his last series as a captain, [and] if you see his statements in the press you can make out he is under pressure.”
As proved by his 123, past records can often count for little on the day. Commentators could have spent more time examining his play in the nets or the state of the pitch when making pre-match predictions. All but one of Ponting’s previous matches in India came before 2001 – back when he had only scored 2500 Test runs, and was averaging 43. He has changed markedly as a player since then. He has scored 7500 further runs, made a staggering 28 hundreds and raised his average to a lofty 58. His average against India in Australia is over 70.
Like a batsman who just received a ball that kicked-up off a good length and must play the next ball entirely on its merits – we must take a step back before making our judgments on a player before a series. Ponting’s record tells a story – it shows us his early weakness against spin, and the grip Harbhajan has held over him. It didn’t, however, tell us how this series was going to pan out. Ponting is an exceptional batsman and his innings yesterday wasn’t just redemption – it was a return to his brilliant status quo (if more tempered and watchful than usual).
Another player whose pre-series statistics masked his undoubted talents was Ishant Sharma. Before this match he had taken 23 wickets at an average of 36 from nine matches (the standard for a good fast bowler being under 30). There is no footnote next to these figures saying: “NB: bowled a great spell against Ponting at Perth a year ago – very good prospect”. If his career had ended before this match, a casual observer of Wisden in 20 or 30 years time would have assumed he was dropped for indifferent form. His four-wicket haul showed true class as he bowled beautifully on a slow surface.
Statistics are an indelible part of the game – they are recorded for posterity and will be your marker when you are gone. But they are only numbers. The game isn’t just about runs and wickets – it’s about people, places and stories. Is Michael Hussey the greatest player since Bradman? No he is not, but his average could make you think so. The two team’s final batting and bowling stats for this series will tell us who played consistently – but they might mask a crucial five not out by a tail-ender that won a pivotal test match. Put simply: they say the stats don’t lie, but sometimes they do.
Alex Try will be (hopefully) writing his thoughts on the India-England series for The Corridor
3 Comments »Ned Flanders uses Statsguru
By Will 2 years ago, at the end of January, 3 Comments »
Ned Flanders – aka John Buchanan – uses Cricinfo’s flagship geek-ahoy app, Statsguru. No great surprise I suppose, given that Buchanan makes Bill Frindall look vaguely hip and groovy. But it’s always interesting hearing it being used by coaches, and for what application.
3 Comments »Some utterly meaningless milestones
By Will 4 years ago, mid-May, 3 Comments »
I’m fast reaching the stage where it does actually feel as though I’ve been blogging for A Long Time.
Just passed 200,000 words; 1,000 different people have now left a comment (perhaps doesn’t a lot, but that’s many more than most); 12,000 comments have been left and we’ve just passed 1,500 posts.
(just out of interest)
3 Comments »sqrt( ( sum ( diff_means ^ 2 )) / innings )
By Scott 4 years ago, at the end of April, No Comments; be the first!
Russ gets all mathematical on his readers while discussing this column at Cricinfo. Mathematically minded readers might enjoy his analysis. Me, I got a headache trying to figure it out, but then I’m hopelessly innumerate.
No Comments »