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Statistics can lie
By Alex Try 2 days ago, about 9ish, Comments
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“There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics” alleged former British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli.
I’m not sure if Disraeli was a cricketer: perhaps this was said in response to a particularly bad season in which his batting average belied the way he was striking the ball in the nets? One thing is sure: statistics hold a powerful grip over the mind of the cricketer and the cricket fan. You don’t hear Manchester United fans discussing Cristiano Ronaldo or Wayne Rooney’s respective goals-to-shots ratio. Be it bowling averages or strike rates, we are obsessed, and this obsession often clouds our judgement of a player.
Ricky Ponting, Australia’s captain, began the current series under a cloud. Prior to the first Test he had scored a grand total of 172 runs in eight matches against India in India, at a dismal average of just 12.3. Much was made of this statistic in the pre-match posturing between the sides, and Ponting himself was obviously acutely aware of his past failings.
“Ponting’s poor record is an advantage for us,” Zaheer Khan told an Indian news channel. “This could be his last series as a captain, [and] if you see his statements in the press you can make out he is under pressure.”
As proved by his 123, past records can often count for little on the day. Commentators could have spent more time examining his play in the nets or the state of the pitch when making pre-match predictions. All but one of Ponting’s previous matches in India came before 2001 – back when he had only scored 2500 Test runs, and was averaging 43. He has changed markedly as a player since then. He has scored 7500 further runs, made a staggering 28 hundreds and raised his average to a lofty 58. His average against India in Australia is over 70.
Like a batsman who just received a ball that kicked-up off a good length and must play the next ball entirely on its merits - we must take a step back before making our judgments on a player before a series. Ponting’s record tells a story - it shows us his early weakness against spin, and the grip Harbhajan has held over him. It didn’t, however, tell us how this series was going to pan out. Ponting is an exceptional batsman and his innings yesterday wasn’t just redemption - it was a return to his brilliant status quo (if more tempered and watchful than usual).
Another player whose pre-series statistics masked his undoubted talents was Ishant Sharma. Before this match he had taken 23 wickets at an average of 36 from nine matches (the standard for a good fast bowler being under 30). There is no footnote next to these figures saying: “NB: bowled a great spell against Ponting at Perth a year ago - very good prospect”. If his career had ended before this match, a casual observer of Wisden in 20 or 30 years time would have assumed he was dropped for indifferent form. His four-wicket haul showed true class as he bowled beautifully on a slow surface.
Statistics are an indelible part of the game - they are recorded for posterity and will be your marker when you are gone. But they are only numbers. The game isn’t just about runs and wickets - it’s about people, places and stories. Is Michael Hussey the greatest player since Bradman? No he is not, but his average could make you think so. The two team’s final batting and bowling stats for this series will tell us who played consistently – but they might mask a crucial five not out by a tail-ender that won a pivotal test match. Put simply: they say the stats don’t lie, but sometimes they do.
Alex Try will be (hopefully) writing his thoughts on the India-England series for The Corridor
CommentsForget the scoreline
By Alex Try 5 days ago, about 9ish, Comments
India versus Australia can no longer be spoken of as a burgeoning rivalry: the history, the animosities, the personalities involved – this is one of the great cricketing contests of modern times.
Forget balanced bowling attacks, or whether to pick White or Krejza. Forget the swansong of the old guard. These are only topical subtexts flowing alongside a greater narrative: a story that can be traced through Sachin Tendulkar’s mastering of Shane Warne, VVS Laxman’s 281 and Australia’s eventual storming of Nagpur back in 2004.
Each new chapter has proved to be as compelling as the last. This is a narrative of such glorious ebb and flow that every cricket fan will be glued to his television or his computer over the coming weeks to be a part of the ensuing drama. India and Australia have yet to disappoint us in these duels.
As George Orwell famously wrote in 1945: sport, as we know it, “is war minus the shooting”. When England meet Germany or India play Pakistan there is so much more to the game than is being played out on the pitch. Sport bears the incredible burden of history. This is what makes such games and series so fascinating to the outsider, and so important to the partisan fan.
India and Australia may not have faced each other down the barrel of a gun, but their recent cricketing battles – both on and off the pitch – mean history is as overt and consequential in this series as in any other between rival nations. When the coin is finally tossed in Bangalore tomorrow the collective intake of breath across the sub-continent will be powerful enough to suck up the Bay of Bengal. Such feelings are the foundations stones upon which this series stands, and which makes it so iconic.
As to the cricket itself, I think India’s chances are over-rated and that Australia will surprise those who describe their bowling attack as weak and their batting as undercooked.
Brett Lee, Stuart Clark and Shane Watson all have the control needed for success in India, and it isn’t often that Australia’s batsman fail to perform. Simon Katich, for one, has been Bradman-esque in state cricket for the last year or so. Their spinners look poor, but it was their pace attack that won the series in 2004. I also remember the last time the Aussies chances were played down. They replied to the tune of 5-0.
For India, barring Gambhir and Virender Sehwag, their batsmen have been poor in recent times. Lee’s pace, like Dale Steyn and Morne Morkel’s for South Africa recently, will unsettle them. Even if MS Dhoni, for example, were to score a brilliant hundred tomorrow, the focus will still be on Rahul Dravid, Tendulkar and Sourav Ganguly to prove their doubters wrong. This will surely eat away at the team.
I predict a victory for Australia, but this is a series which is about so much more than the eventual scoreline.
Alex Try will be (hopefully) blogging his views of India’s series against Australia for The Corridor
India v Australia: let the fanaticism begin
By Will Wednesday, last week, Comments
Far be it for me to criticise Cricinfo, but I couldn’t help smile at my colleague’s piece today in which he offered an acute observation of the Indians’ net session. I remember when I was in India last year, staying with a friend, and one of his housemates reckoned he only had a passing interest in the game and that he knew bugger all about the game. He still knew more than Henry Blofeld, and cursed the heavy-handedness of the ICC, which rather sums up Indians’ attitude towards the sport (of sports in general, increasingly).
If, for some ridiculous reason, you have any lingering doubts that cricket in India is not followed closely - that it’s some vague fad that a few thousand people occasionally switch on the TV for - read this:
CommentsRahul Dravid, on the other hand, looked to perfect his defence, testing his judgement of when to leave outside the off stump. Ishant Sharma and Sachin Tendulkar had a good little session, too, walking up to each other after almost every delivery and discussing what was right and what was wrong.
The bowlers got an intense workout as well: Ishant Sharma bowled for an hour and 10 minutes in two spells, Zaheer Khan bowled his two for an hour, and Munaf Patel bowled for an hour without a break. Besides the normal stumps, the bowlers had a fifth stump as a guide so that they could get used to bowling the just-outside-the-off-stump line.
Notes from the pavilion for October 20th
By Will last year, mid-October, Comments
Links of note from the past 24 hours:
- Trevin Bastiampillai - What a brilliant name
- Howard gives $6.5m for Bradman museum -
- Don and Pup bring cricket history to life - Clarke does the one-stump trick ala Bradman in an Australian TV commercial. Anyone got the video to share?
- Strain tells on Symonds - Victimisation by the media? This is out of control
The Australia-India spat
By Will last year, at the start of October, Comments
So Australia and India are embroiled in a spat all about Australia’s favourite tactic: on-field aggression. The Indians claim Ricky Ponting’s team have been using “harsh words” to their batsmen, while Australia suggest that India have misinterpreted “what aggressive cricket means”.
I can’t help feel this has been blown out of all proportion - by both parties. Australia are renowned for their tough-talking bullshit on the field of play, and equally famous for not being able to take it themselves. Remember England in the Ashes in 2005? Simon Jones flinging the ball into Matthew Hayden; Paul Collingwood, and others, shouldering up to an incensed Hayden. The bullies are always the biggest of cowards.
But I’m on Australia’s side for once, and not out of sympathy owing to their utter humiliation by England today in the Rugby World Cup (yeehaw!). India: for God’s sake, grow up and get on with it. If the nasty Australians really get out of hand, there are enough stump mics and cameras to witness the event. There’s a sense that India are appealing to the world, that somehow they are being victimised by Australia. Australia do this to every other team and although it occasionally boils over, it’s just part of their game.
It doesn’t always work for other teams though. India should just forget about trying to out-sledge them - it is not working.
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