“There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics” alleged former British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli.
I’m not sure if Disraeli was a cricketer: perhaps this was said in response to a particularly bad season in which his batting average belied the way he was striking the ball in the nets? One thing is sure: statistics hold a powerful grip over the mind of the cricketer and the cricket fan. You don’t hear Manchester United fans discussing Cristiano Ronaldo or Wayne Rooney’s respective goals-to-shots ratio. Be it bowling averages or strike rates, we are obsessed, and this obsession often clouds our judgement of a player.
Ricky Ponting, Australia’s captain, began the current series under a cloud. Prior to the first Test he had scored a grand total of 172 runs in eight matches against India in India, at a dismal average of just 12.3. Much was made of this statistic in the pre-match posturing between the sides, and Ponting himself was obviously acutely aware of his past failings.
“Ponting’s poor record is an advantage for us,” Zaheer Khan told an Indian news channel. “This could be his last series as a captain, [and] if you see his statements in the press you can make out he is under pressure.”
As proved by his 123, past records can often count for little on the day. Commentators could have spent more time examining his play in the nets or the state of the pitch when making pre-match predictions. All but one of Ponting’s previous matches in India came before 2001 – back when he had only scored 2500 Test runs, and was averaging 43. He has changed markedly as a player since then. He has scored 7500 further runs, made a staggering 28 hundreds and raised his average to a lofty 58. His average against India in Australia is over 70.
Like a batsman who just received a ball that kicked-up off a good length and must play the next ball entirely on its merits – we must take a step back before making our judgments on a player before a series. Ponting’s record tells a story – it shows us his early weakness against spin, and the grip Harbhajan has held over him. It didn’t, however, tell us how this series was going to pan out. Ponting is an exceptional batsman and his innings yesterday wasn’t just redemption – it was a return to his brilliant status quo (if more tempered and watchful than usual).
Another player whose pre-series statistics masked his undoubted talents was Ishant Sharma. Before this match he had taken 23 wickets at an average of 36 from nine matches (the standard for a good fast bowler being under 30). There is no footnote next to these figures saying: “NB: bowled a great spell against Ponting at Perth a year ago – very good prospect”. If his career had ended before this match, a casual observer of Wisden in 20 or 30 years time would have assumed he was dropped for indifferent form. His four-wicket haul showed true class as he bowled beautifully on a slow surface.
Statistics are an indelible part of the game – they are recorded for posterity and will be your marker when you are gone. But they are only numbers. The game isn’t just about runs and wickets – it’s about people, places and stories. Is Michael Hussey the greatest player since Bradman? No he is not, but his average could make you think so. The two team’s final batting and bowling stats for this series will tell us who played consistently – but they might mask a crucial five not out by a tail-ender that won a pivotal test match. Put simply: they say the stats don’t lie, but sometimes they do.
Alex Try will be (hopefully) writing his thoughts on the India-England series for The Corridor
The problem is with the obsession people have over statistics based on small samples. The main problem with the Ponting-in-India stat that everyone was quoting is that it was only based on a handful of innings. We understand that Hussey isn’t the second-greatest batsman ever, even though he’s had over 40 innings now. Ponting had only had 14 innings in India before this Test.
In the case of Hussey (and more generally), it is possible to estimate his “true” average by regressing his average to the mean. It is hard (and perhaps impossible) to do this precisely, but we can at least get it pretty close. The players who have got into the strong Australian batting lineup in the last decade have a mean average of a bit over 40 and a standard deviation of around 12 (there’s a bit of fudging there, but it’s reasonable). We can get the uncertainty of Hussey’s average by the number of innings he’s played, and adjust accordingly. The result is an estiamte that Hussey’s true average is a bit under 60. Still very very good.
What is Zaheer Khan basing his speculation that this could be Ponting's last series as captain? Unless he knows something I don't I would expect him to be around for a while yet.
I don't think Zaheer Khan knows what comes out when he opens his mouth. It seems he has been appointed the team media fire-stoker as at the moment he has opinions on all and sundry.
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