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    Is 50 the new 40?

    By Will last year, at the end of July Leave a comment on this post

    My colleague and I were watching Kevin Pietersen crash his way to yet another hundred today when a thought popped into my head. Is the new benchmark for batsman to average 50, rather than 40 as it was a decade ago? He disagreed so we settled on the conclusion that, to be considered a “pretty damn good” batsman you’ll be averaging 45 as a minimum.

    And it got us thinking back to the dark old days in the 1990s when none (Alec Stewart apart, briefly, I think) of England’s top-order averaged 40, while some lurked in the dismal gloom of the low-thirties. But these days, they’re all over 40 and two - Matt Prior and Kevin Pietersen - are averaging over 50.

    On a similar line, if batsmen’s averages are increasing - and I have no evidence with which to support this claim as I’m rambling like a loon - are bowlers’ also inflating? A decade ago, a really decent bowler was said to be averaging under 25. But with batsmen enjoying such shorter boundaries, and the game’s frenetic pace spiralling upwards with each year, is 30 the new 25?

    Thoughts welcome.

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    18 Responses to “Is 50 the new 40?”

  • Marcus wrote:
    July 23rd, 2007 at 1.57 am

    Yes, an average of 40 isn’t what it used to be. Of course stats don’t tell the whole story- I still regard Mark Waugh as the best Australian batsman I’ve ever seen (not necessarily the greatest, just the best).

    Something else is that bowlers’ strike rates are also going down. Three of the greatest bowlers in history are Ray Lindwall, Alan Davidson and Alec Bedser- just compare their strike rates with those of Malinga, Jermaine Lawson and James Franklin. It seems to me that strike rates are no longer the most important indicator of a bowler’s quality.

  • Ian wrote:
    July 23rd, 2007 at 9.47 am

    I’d agree that 50 is new 40. Take Kumar Sangakkara for example. He is one of my favourite players, not least for his ability to sledge and speak English better than most Englishmen, but he ought not to have an average in the mid-Fifties (54).

    Indeed, during the last Bangla series, he boosted his average by a full four runs in just two innings with those back-to-back unbeaten double hundreds. I’m sure they were super knocks, but…

    Even take England’s current crop of middle order batsmen. Maybe it’s nostalgia speaking, but I don’t think Pietersen (52 run average), Collingwood (45) and Bell (44) are any better than David Gower (44), Robin Smith (43) and Alan Lamb (36).

  • Will Davies wrote:
    July 23rd, 2007 at 10.15 am

    I was having a similar discussion yesterday regarding test centuries, started by the following observation:

    Kevin Pietersen’s century yesterday was his 9th, in just over two years of test cricket. When Graham Gooch hit his 333, it was viewed as the crowning achievement by one of England’s most dedicated and consistent cricketers (give or take a dodgy tour to South Africa), and it was his 9th test century.

    Andrew Strauss, 10 test centuries; Alastair Cook, 6; Ian Bell, 6. All these players look set to rival Gower, Gatting and Gooch by the end of their careers, which may not be so surprising now that there is more cricket played and the England team is clearly stronger than it was in the 80s and 90s. But, at the risk of sounding like an old git, another Alastair Cook century doesn’t seem to have quite the same heroic quality that those of the three G’s or Alan Lamb or Robin Smith did. It seems like less an act of personal heroism, and more a symptom of endless work with the sports psychologist and computerised analysis of foot movement.

    Most of all, it was not made in defiance of Ambrose, Walsh, Marshall, Donald, Waqar, Wasim or any other truly great fast bowler, for the simple reason that there aren’t any playing. Then again, to repeat the usual cliche, you can only beat what’s put in front of you…

  • Cricket Guru wrote:
    July 23rd, 2007 at 1.25 pm

    Yes, 50 is the Minimum Acceptable Level to be called a great batsman these days. And it just the starting point for greatness.

    As an aside, I also feel this is the best time to be a ‘good spinner’. With excess of ODI and Twenty20 cricket, the art of playing spin bowling (in tests) is on a wane. So unlike in 70s and 80s, when a good spinner averaged in high 20s and even 30s, we might see more bowlers from Warne and Murali’s ilk breaking into the low 20s, and who knows even better that.

  • The Bear wrote:
    July 24th, 2007 at 12.54 pm

    Averages are sadly misleading, as I’ve said before. Robin Smith never had the luxury of playing against the shower that is currently misrepresnting itself as the West Indies “attack”. As it was, he averaged 44.43 against Ambrose, Walsh, Marshall, Patterson and Bishop. I imagine that you could comfortably add 10 or 15 to that average had he been facing the pie-chuckers that have just come over.

    Likewise Ian Bell’s average of 42.59 is bolstered by 227 runs for no dismissal against a Bangadeshi team that was an embarrasment (and remains one - I reckon they should be kicked out of Test cricket, and told to play against A-teams until they are competetive. This won’t happen though, as it would weaken the Asian block-vote, and would mean that Tendulkar wouldn’t be able to score any more hundreds). When you take the Bangladeshis out of the equation, Bell averages a much more, well, average, 37.43.

    Finally, imagine if Hick and Ramps had been able to start their careers now! We’d have two world beaters I reckon…

  • Yobbo wrote:
    July 24th, 2007 at 3.40 pm

    “Most of all, it was not made in defiance of Ambrose, Walsh, Marshall, Donald, Waqar, Wasim or any other truly great fast bowler, for the simple reason that there aren’t any playing.”

    Does the name “Glenn McGrath” mean anything to you? How about “Shane Warne”?

  • The Bear wrote:
    July 24th, 2007 at 5.47 pm

    Good point Yobbo. When Ian Bell is facing Warne and McGrath his average drops to 25.10. And he still averages 42.59. He made a load of runs against a rubbish Pakistani bowling side too.

    And as for your rose tinted spectacles, are you really telling me that the bowling today is as good as the bowling 10 years ago? No, thought not.

  • Ian wrote:
    July 24th, 2007 at 6.35 pm

    You’re spot on, Yobbo - those two (with Murali) are about the only two truly class acts in recent times. But does that not reflect badly on the only batmen to have avoided them, namely the Australians. Is Hayden that much better than Boon? Hussey better than Border? Surely not.

    Farukh Engineer recently said that Sunil Gavaskar’s great disadvantage over other batsmen in world cricket was that he never got to boost his average against Indian bowlers! Perhaps this has worked in reverse for Aussie batsmen…?

    Ponting and Gilchrist are probably the exception. They’d have still averaged plenty in the 80s and 90s.

  • Will Davies wrote:
    July 24th, 2007 at 6.48 pm

    Yobbo - I wrote “it was not made in defiance of Ambrose, Walsh, Marshall, Donald, Waqar, Wasim or any other truly great fast bowler”.

    Obviously Shane Warne and Glenn McGrath are both great bowlers. But what I was getting at was the sheer intimidation of facing truly fast (i.e. not McGrath speed) bowling consistently coming into the ribs. It was this kind of bowling that prevented Hick from ever making it as a world class (or even consistent international) batsman; it was this kind of bowling that Atherton had to cope with for much of his career, and which probably explains the fact that he ended up with an average under 40.

    Just remember that spin-bowling was judged almost dead when Warne came along in 1992, and people were worried the game had become one dimensional (i.e. too much fast bowling). But looking back, batsman might have benefited from the transition to a more varied, intelligent type of game that is, as you say, typified in McGrath and Warne.

    It’s interesting to consider that Steve Waugh era Australia not only drove the game forward in terms of upping the scoring rate, they also dominated the world without a really quick and high quality bowler. Not sure what that signifies, but it’s certainly the period in which things changed.

    Will

  • Yobbo wrote:
    July 25th, 2007 at 1.26 am

    “But does that not reflect badly on the only batmen to have avoided them, namely the Australians.”

    Only if you think it also reflects badly on Viv Richards and Clive Lloyd, who never had to face Marshall, Walsh, Ambrose, Garner etc.

  • Yobbo wrote:
    July 25th, 2007 at 1.28 am

    “it was this kind of bowling that Atherton had to cope with for much of his career, and which probably explains the fact that he ended up with an average under 40.”

    And yet the person who truly gave Atherton the most trouble in his career was….Glenn McGrath.

  • Scott wrote:
    July 25th, 2007 at 6.04 am

    I watched my videotapes of the 1999 and 2003 World Cup finals this weekend and McGrath wasn’t slow at all in the 90’s. In the 99 Final he was able to get the speed gun up to 90 mph, which is plenty fast enough, if you’re the poor schmuck at the other end.

  • Marcus wrote:
    July 25th, 2007 at 8.04 am

    Some evidence to back up your claim- If you take three of the most dominant batsmen of the last 5 years (Ricky Ponting, Md. Yousuf and Mathew Hayden) and you look at their averages prior to 2002, then you can see how much they’ve gone up. Ponting’s average between ‘96 and ‘02 was 44.2- now it’s 59. Yousuf’s was 43, and is now 56, while Hayden’s has shot up from 21-odd during the ’90s to 52 now.

  • Yobbo wrote:
    July 25th, 2007 at 9.25 am

    You would have expected Ponting and Hayden’s to go up seeing as that Australia have completely dominated world cricket over that period.

    Yousuf has simply improved a hell of a lot. When he first came on the scene he was nothing special, now he’s a powerhouse.

    Obviously there is some effect in batting technology, better ground preparation and smaller boundaries that can’t all be attributed to the player.

    But the MAIN reason averages have gone up in the last 10 years really is that batsman are much more attacking and play more shots.

    If Ponting, Hayden, Pietersen or Yousuf bat for 2 sessions they make a century. If David Gower or Mike Atherton did that, they’d be lucky to be past 50 by that stage.

    And that is the real story here. Test cricket is a much different game nowadays than it was 20 years ago. Draws are nearly unheard of, and a run rate of 4.0 is common, whereas 20 years ago 2.0 was the norm.

    And quite frankly, it was players of great skill like Ponting, Hayden and Gilchrist that brought about this seachange in test cricket. Jayasuriya, Pietersen, Sehwag and Yousuf have simply shown that you don’t have to be Australian to do it.

  • Yobbo wrote:
    July 25th, 2007 at 9.33 am

    And don’t forget that the man with the highest average of all time, Bradman, was feared not because he’d bat for 3 days like Geoffrey Boycott, but because he would spank the bowlers all around the park for as long as he remained at the crease.

    It’s hard to find stats on test batting strike rates, but I would be willing to bet that all the players averages 55+ have correspondingly high strike rates. Except maybe Dravid heh.

  • The Bear wrote:
    July 25th, 2007 at 10.03 am

    Yobbo, surely it’s obvious to even the meanest of intellects that the reason that strike rates have increased is that the bowling in the 70s/80s/90s was of a considerably higher calibre than it is now. Thus is is much easier to smack the current Zimbabwe/Windies/Bangladesh attack around than it was to cart the likes of Waquar, Wasim, Hadlee, Ambrose, Willis, Marshall, Lillee etc etc.

    For the record, arch bully Matt Hayden’s average drops from 53.00 to 50.23 if you discard the free runs he got vs Zimbabwe.

  • Yobbo wrote:
    July 25th, 2007 at 10.54 am

    Actually it’s not obvious at all.

    England teams facing a plodding attack of Craig McDermott, Carl Rackemann and Tim May and Greg Matthews scored much more slowly than they currently do against Australia.

    Players don’t just up their strike rates against Zimbabwe. Australia scored plenty fast against England in either of the last 2 ashes series, despite an attack of Flintoff, Hoggard, Panesar and Harmison.

    And England equally, scored quickly against Australia, despite an attack featuring McGrath and Warne. Especially Peitersen.

    The lesson of the last 10 years that to score quickly, you simply have to want to. Players now leave a lot less balls than they used to, and running between wickets has also greatly improved.

    Ricky Ponting quite regularly drops the ball at his feet and takes a single in Test Matches. Players in the 70’s wouldn’t have dreamed of taking such a risk for 1 run.

  • Michael wrote:
    July 28th, 2007 at 1.15 am

    Making a comeback here from Sunny NSW.

    Matt Prior started with 126* against absolute rubbish. Bangladesh is playing better than this West Indies squad.

    Now he’s up against half decent bowling and he has been found out. Watch for more failures this summer from him. Not impressed.

    Marcus I agree with you whole heartedly on Mark Waugh. This is an example of a batsman who was so elegant and so good that at times he got bored with it. While that in of itself is a flaw no one can deny the sheer joy and beauty of his cuts, flicks through midwicket and cover drives on the up. He should have been also the first man to score back-to-back-to-back centuries in the World Cup, if only Zimbabwe had have scored more runs that day in 96.

    I still grin at the thought of England managing to see the back of one Waugh and what they must have been thinking when realizing they were going to have to deal with another one.

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