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Loading ...Duckworth and Lewis were two statisticians. Enough said!
England’s Commonwealth Bank Series win completes my misery
By Scott 3 years ago, mid-February Add your comment below
I have a toothache from hell. It set in on Friday night, and my dentist can’t fit me in until Wednesday morning. So between that, and England totally outplaying Australia in the one day finals, I have not been a happy little camper. At the moment, I’m taking refuge in alcohol for pain relief. Meanwhile I wonder if Andrew Flintoff is taking pain relief from alcohol. The last time Flintoff was involved in winning a trophy off Australia, his alcohol intake was spectacular. I’m partial to a drop myself, but I have to admit I don’t think I could keep up with Freddy when he’s up for a drink.
Anyway, enough of vices. I asked in my previous post if Duncan Fletcher would have anything to do with the resurrection of English fortunes, and it turns out he did have a bit to say.
Whereas a matter of weeks ago England’s planning for the World Cup almost revolved around picking random names out of a hat, Fletcher now says there is a clear plan heading into the tournament.
“We’ve got a side that have won here and done very, very well and yet we are still missing people of the calibre of [Michael] Vaughan and [Kevin] Pietersen who are two very important players for us, so it’s still going to be very difficult for us [to narrow down the squad].”
“But we’re a lot clearer than we were at the start of this series. We really believe in the side now, four in a row is a great achievement and we’ve just got to continue with that momentum.”
Fletcher, himself, received a special mention as Andrew Flintoff relished his first success as captain. “The one person I really want to thank is Duncan Fletcher,” said Flintoff, “throughout the trip he has kept taking the knocks for us but he has kept backing us.”
While most of the plaudits will go to Paul Collingwood, and rightly so, I think that the emergence of Liam Plunkett also has a lot to do with the turnaround in England’s fortunes. And Monty Panesar has had a role to play too. He hasn’t taken a hatful of wickets, but he’s always kept things tight, and a good spinner is worth a fortune in any form of cricket.
Australia have got some thinking to do. They are in danger of losing their ranking as the best ODI side in the world to South Africa. To me the two issues are that Michael Hussey has lost his magic touch, as well as Symonds’ injury. Michael Clarke could do with some more runs as well. My own view was that White should have replaced Symonds as the batting allrounder. Instead, they’ve chosen Watson as a bowling allrounder, which is fine except that he’s barely had any cricket since the Champions trophy. Bringing him back for the finals smacked of hubris, and hubris gets punished.
My understanding is that Will will be returning from Kenya in the next few days, with plenty of photographs and hopefully some insider gossip about his adventures. For an Englishman’s perspective, be sure to read the Reverse Swing Manifesto (and speaking of which, why hasn’t Troy Cooley done us any good in the ODI’s?) In the meantime, I leave you with one final question before I drown my sorrows. What exactly is the Duckworth/Lewis algorithim? I once heard it described as being so complex as to make Einstein look like a bit of fun with an abacas, but even still!
Tags: albert-einstein, andrew-flintoff, australia, commonwealth-bank-series, drinking, duncan-fletcher, england, liam-plunkett, monty-panesar, paul-collingwood, sydney, will |
18 Responses to “England’s Commonwealth Bank Series win completes my misery”
February 12th, 2007 at 6.37 pm
February 12th, 2007 at 7.56 pm
Agree about Hussey. He has rescued Australia on many occasions and, with him out of touch, Symonds injured and Martyn retired, that middle lorder looks far from invincible…
February 12th, 2007 at 8.34 pm
Hope your tooth ache is better now Scott, not sure again what Duncun meant when he said ‘players of the calibre of Michael Vaughan’ (given Vaughan’s shambolic one-day record – but given how shambolic a character he him self is – that is not a surprise.
Credit to England nevertheless though – I’ve been at them too all season and they’ve proved me wrong quite a few times now. This doens’t mean I think they’ll win the World Cup now, or that Australia wont make it four times in a row, but yeah, they might do a lot better now given the momentum they’ll be carrying on from these wins.
February 12th, 2007 at 8.44 pm
Scott, If you’re really interested in how the Duckworth/Lewis method works, look at http://www.icc-cricket.com/icc/rules/d-l_method.pdf
I’ve tried reading it (I’m a bit of a maths freak) but it seriously is like wading through treakle. For those of you who won’t even bother visiting the site, this gives you an idea:
“If R2 is greater than R1, calculate the amount of excess resources, R2 – R1, and take this percentage of the average 50-over total, G50, to give the extra runs needed, ignoring any figures after the decimal point.
i.e. T = S + (R2 – R1) x G50/100 + 1 (rounded down to a whole number, if necessary)” Agggggghhhhhhhh!
As for hubris getting puished, Buchanan showed that with his comments a few weeks back. I’m only sorry that the Aussies will (perhaps) have learned their lesson for the World Cup. Of course England will relish the confidence the past week has given them and that will do the team the world of good so soon before the World Cup, but if only the Aussie arrogance (and hopefully, therefore,
downfall) could continue for the next two months or so, I’d be a very happy person.
February 12th, 2007 at 9.27 pm
Find a new dentist…
Easier than replacing Andrew Symonds!
February 12th, 2007 at 11.24 pm
Scott, I think your pain and misery are clouding your cool, calm judgement. That’s a bit strong on Watson. It’s hardly hubris to replace an injured player (Roy) with the one this player replaced when he got injured! He is actually part of the team, was named for the Ashes, played very well in the Malaysian trip and the Champion’s Trophy, and has now resumed his place in the team. (yes, i know we’re talking ODI here not Test but they are both in both teams). As an all-rounder, his skills are better than White’s at this point, and as a batsman, his technique is much more complete. White is a hitter in the Symond’s mould but has shown little yet as a bowler.
Hussey is hardly past it after year or so. A slump, being overtired, a new role in NZ, I’m sure we’ll see a return of the Hussey we know. Maybe he won’t have such spectacular averages still, but players wilh excellent technique can always fall back on that when it the cricketing gods have stopped smiling on you for a while. Look at Tendulkar!
I wonder if in a week’s time when you feel better you’ll be taking it all back?
One thing you didn’t mention about the England team is that they still have their wicket-keeper dilemma. I would’ve thought Nixon had earned his spot but many experts are talking again about Read.
February 13th, 2007 at 2.55 am
Watson should have been brought back for the relatively less important games in NZ. Not in a final. White is a more logical replacement for Symonds as a batting allrounder.
And my tooth still hurts.
February 13th, 2007 at 3.19 am
Why is the Chappell-Hadlee less important than the Commonwealth Bank Series? The C-H is a great Tasman Sea rivalry contest!
February 13th, 2007 at 4.18 am
oh, and sorry about the tooth. Have you tried oil of cloves on it and a strong panadiene?
February 13th, 2007 at 6.26 am
Which tooth is it, Scott? Try gargling with a solution of warm water and salt, sometimes that helps – although if you’re having problems with a stuborn 3rd molar, then only a visit to the dentist might help.
February 13th, 2007 at 4.44 pm
It’s a 3rd molar. 6 hours till my dentist appointment!
February 14th, 2007 at 11.55 am
Hope your tooth is fixed by now, Scott. Toothache is the absolute pits.
Now then, boys and girls, let’s take a quick walk down D/L Lane. Don’t be frightened, hold my hand tight. It is all about how much resources a team has available, right? Resources just means chances to make runs based on overs and wickets. If a team has 50 overs to play and 10 wickets in hand, they have 100%. If they have played 50 overs and lost 10 wickets, they have 0%. If they have played 25 overs and lost 4 wickets, they are down to 50%, just believe me on this one, okay?
D/L have dinky little tables with all these figures listed, so if you don’t have the tables you are doomed.
Team A go to bat and get a decent score off their 50 overs, so you calculate how many resources they used to get there, this is R1.
Team B go to bat but get interrupted for rain/bad light. Every 4 minutes means 1 lost over – so they lose resources, this is R2. So a scorer has to recalculate the revised total every 4 minutes. You compare R1 against R2 and downsize the total needed accordingly.
So if R2 is less than R1
Target = (score x R2/R1) + 1
Easy! Even easier if you have the computer programme to do it all for you.
Scott, hope this helps 
February 14th, 2007 at 12.05 pm
Addendum:
if R2 = R1, then target = score + 1
If R2 is greater that R1 (first innings interrupted but second innings not), then
Target = score + (R2 – R1) x G50/100 + 1
where G50 is the average score for a first class game, e.g. English county cricket G50 = 235, for ICC Associate member countries the G50 is 190.
February 14th, 2007 at 2.34 pm
Cheers for that Wraye! Always handy to know.
February 14th, 2007 at 7.58 pm
yes, thank you, Wraye….um, I’ll keep that close by next time a match is rained out, though I’m sure by the time I’ve worked it out it will be over..
February 15th, 2007 at 12.49 am
Thanks for your thanks. Well, you did ask. Now I feel like a complete anorak 
February 15th, 2007 at 6.04 am
No, Wraye, it’s probabley simple but it’s beyond me. I’ll just ask you next time.
February 15th, 2007 at 5.29 pm
Hee, laugh! I’ll be there to calculate for you guys. Caro, even with time differences etc, I’m sure to be quicker than Sky
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